Almonds

The almond market remains characterised by uncertainty following the most recent position report from The Almond Board of California. While the report was expected to bring greater clarity, questions remain as to whether the crop is truly as small as initially forecast or whether growers and shellers are strategically holding back volumes to further support pricing.

Much of the market focus in recent months has been on crop receipts. Current receipts stand at 2.187 billion pounds, representing a 6.6% decrease compared to last year’s 2.432 billion pounds. Several hullers and shellers have indicated that operations ran at reduced speeds during October and November due to wetter-than-normal conditions, slowing the flow of receipts. Under typical circumstances, crop size estimates become reasonably accurate by early January, but this season clarity may be delayed until early February.

As a result, market speculation continues, with estimates for the final crop ranging between 2.60 and 2.75 billion pounds. This would place the crop well below the industry’s objective estimate of 3 billion pounds, reinforcing concerns around overall availability.

Year-to-date shipments currently total 824 million pounds, compared to 911 million pounds over the same period last year, reflecting a 9.5% decline. New sales in November reached 204.2 million pounds, slightly below last year’s 209 million pounds. Based on a projected 2.7-billion-pound crop, approximately 43.9% of the available supply, including carry-in, has already been sold. Should the crop ultimately reach only 2.6 billion pounds, this figure would rise to 45.3%, further tightening the supply outlook.

From a regional perspective, India is reportedly becoming more active in the market after a slower November, while Europe remains relatively uncovered for the first quarter and is expected to re-enter the market to secure nearby needs.

Looking ahead, December shipment figures appear strong on paper. However, holiday-related port schedules may result in shipment rollovers, potentially pushing volumes into later periods. Overall, indications suggest that the 2025 almond crop will come in well below the initial July estimate. Availability remains the key concern, as a significant portion of the crop has yet to be delivered by farmers.

Given these factors, accurate crop figures may only become available in February. Until then, the market is likely to face continued speculation, with pricing sentiment expected to remain firm to bullish in the near term.