Market info - Sunflower kernels
A record acreage in Ukraine and favourable weather conditions are boosting yield forecasts for the coming season. Bulgarian sunflower seed traders, however, remain cautious and shy away from taking risks.
Driven by fears of profit slumps and losses, many sunflower seed traders are extremely cautious when it comes to offers for the new crop. While a lot can still happen in the coming weeks until the harvest starts, some market players are currently more confident than others that sunflower seed production should be significantly better than in 2020. "There is a lot of tension about the new crop," says a Bulgarian sunflower seed trader, "most suppliers are confused and refuse to give offers." Traders who are willing to offer prices are hesitant to do so and include a risk premium, which makes prices rather expensive. What can actually be expected at the moment, one trader said, is a lower supply of striped sunflower seeds, as many farmers have preferred to grow the black variety this year.
Otherwise, there was little cause for concern at the moment. The weather conditions in Bulgaria were relatively favourable, only the rainfall rate was comparatively high at the moment. However, this would only become a problem if the rains continued for several weeks.
At the same time, UkrAgroConsult reports that the acreage for sunflower seeds in Ukraine is said to have reached a new record, together with the forecast of an above-average yield, hopes are rising that the situation in the sunflower seed market will be much more relaxed than in the current season. As Russia's acreage also turned out to be larger than planned, it is questionable whether the country can afford to maintain the 50% export duty on sunflower seeds until the end of August 2022 as planned, should the crops be able to recover from the last year's deficit.
Prices for the new crop need to decline